Minoiu, Camelia, and Sanjay Reddy. "Achieving the Millennium Development Goals: What's Wrong with Existing Analytical Models?" Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies 14, no. 3 (2006).

Effective strategic choices for achieving the MDGs must be based on sound assessments of the costs and benefits of alternative policies. However, existing approaches to identifying these costs and benefits are unreliable. In particular, estimates of the costs and benefits of alternative strategies derive from implausible and restrictive assumptions, often depend on poor quality data, and are of limited value in guiding long-term decisions due to substantial uncertainties concerning the future. These weaknesses of existing analytical models can be mitigated but not overcome. An alternative to the technocratic approach to strategic planning is needed, in view of the potential damage from the use of erroneous analytical models.